Challenge #98

Is the Gulf Stream going to collapse?

The warm Gulf Stream keeps temperatures moderate in northern and central Europe. But climate change could cause it to weaken. We examine how likely such a scenario is – and what impact it could have.

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Ocean currents are an important driver of our climate system. They distribute vast amounts of energy through all ocean basins; the Gulf Stream alone circulates about 1.5 petawatts, or more than quadrillion watts of energy. This energy is largely responsible for the mild climate in Europe.

But global warming and the resulting influx of freshwater into the North Atlantic (from Greenland’s melting glaciers) could significantly weaken this important ocean current. Researchers at GEOMAR are therefore conducting long-term measurements to investigate whether this weakening has already begun. They are also using high-resolution simulations to understand the dynamics of the Gulf Stream better and to estimate its future evolution.

Measurements to date do not yet indicate any weakening so far. However, recent climate simulations indicate a high probability of weakening in the future. In order to gain a fuller understanding of the complex flow systems, we are continuing to observe the Gulf Stream and refine our model systems.

This approach helps us answer key questions: how is the Gulf Stream circulation responding to global warming? And what impact will this have on our weather, climate, and biodiversity?

(Photo: GEOMAR)